What does that mean to you? Luck? Sorry, but nope!

In probability theory and statistics, the variance of a random variable or distribution is the expectation, or mean, of the deviation squared of that variable from its expected value or mean. Thus the variance is a measure of the amount of variation within the values of that variable, taking account of all possible values and their probabilities or weightings.

Well, lol, thats a hard WIKI definition to wade through. Lets break it down..

probability theory. lol, this first came up in the 16th century by a gambler and mathmetician, named Gerolamo Cardano. But basically it is simple. probability is to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events.

well,,...how does one draw conclusions? By statistics. And that is keeping data over a long period of time, and organizing it , lol, untill we get to poker and we all know AA beats any random hand 80% of the time if playing 1 to 1. lol an if you got AA and 4 callers the odds drop down down to 53%.

So many of u folks, stop at the probability of a hand, and do not get your statistics on that hand. You get caught in the world of "Man I got bad beat" or "poker is rigged" or "I had QQ and this idiot played 72 and won" or "that river always kills me".

Varience is the way to explain and understand poker. Your AA might get cracked 100 times in a row. but if you play 10,000 hands, that AA will win about 80% of the time. But it ain't gonna win 80% everytime.

There is no "short term" in poker. You must base your play on using optimal cards in optimal circumstances. In other words, u must play where the edge is yours. And then over time you will be a winner.

So what is over time? That means lotsa hands, lotsa tournaments. like 50,000 hands or 500 tournaments

Then you look at how u are doing after that many hands. Varience is the wavy line. AA winning comes and goes. Getting cards and playing hot comes and goes, So does playing cold.. The other line represents your winnings over that time. But until u get those 100,000 hands, Youre not winning shit for a week or month, ..... well means SHIT


Now thats a really simplistic graph. But it illustrates the point that Varience will swing low and it will swing high. Varience is NOT luck.

Varience is not 1 game, or 20, or 50. varience is what happens over time. Be prepared for never winning a hand or game with best cards, be prepared for not winning a hand or game with best cards for even month stretches.

However, do be prepared to always play your best, with the best cards in all games and hands, and over time that win rate will beat varience.

Now there are some other important considerations I should mention. Tilt and BRM. A lot of players will just play through the bad varience, fine if u have the BRM to do that. But if u dont have the BRM, a lot of peeps will start playing much tighter, and not make plays with JQ on the Button, cause they are scared of losing their BR. That will affect the varience over time. those loops are gonna get bigger, lol. Tilt, well, if you tilt, god bless ya, we other players that see that think , mmmm, mmmm. If u lose with AA, then you lose the other half of your stack with KK, and you got 1,000 chips left and start going all in every hand, you are Tilting and you know what? you dont know jack about Varience.

Varience is probablility with statistics. But it for sure the Hell not is LUCK